EE Times India says an analyst has predicted 10% growth in the semiconductor industry over the next few years saying the lack of investment on expansion in the semiconductor industry and the growth in the global economy will spur growth in the semiconductor industry. According to EE Times India:
Malcolm Penn, founder and principal analyst with Future Horizons Ltd, believes the market forces are at last moving into place to deliver a couple of years of booming growth for the semiconductor industry. Penn offers three possible results for annual chip market growth in 2008, ranging from 7 per cent at the low side up to 10 per cent growth at the top end.
He is convinced that, because of a lack of investment in semiconductor manufacturing capacity at present, prices will continue to rise, alongside units in 2009, giving rise to a market growth in the "high-teens" of per cent.
This would be a return to glory days of the semiconductor; albeit one prompted by an unprecedented move away from chip manufacturing at the leading-edge by many of the major chip vendors.
But Penn is being bullish while the analysis forest remains full of bears. Others have expressed concern that a general economic slowdown could suppress demand in the second half of the year. Falling units with weak pricing is a recipe for a semiconductor market collapse. In contrast Penn believes that unit sales will hold up and when put together with increasing average selling prices (ASPs) will start to deliver strong overall chip market growth for the first time in many years.
The article is an interesting one and well worth the read. There have been concerns in the semiconductor industry about the low prices being driven down by high inventory levels. Any growth in the semiconductor industry will be good for Taiwan firms such as TSMC and UMC.
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