31 July 2008

TSMC sees good Q2 but Expects Slowdown.

There is a lot of news about TSMC out there today. First up is there Q2 earnings report. According to a press release:

TSMC today announced consolidated revenue of NT$88.14 billion, net income of NT$28.77 billion, and diluted earnings per share of NT$1.12 (US$0.18 per ADS unit)for the second quarter ended June 30, 2008.

Year-over-year, second quarter revenue increased 17.6% while net income and diluted EPS increased 12.9% and 16.3%, respectively. On a sequential basis, second quarter results represent a 0.8% increase in revenue, an increase of 2.2% in net income, and an increase of 2.1% in diluted EPS. All figures were prepared in accordance with R.O.C. GAAP on a consolidated basis.

Second quarter business saw an improvement from the previous quarter, although revenue and margins continued to be negatively affected by the strength of the NT dollar. Despite the negative impact from the foreign exchange rate, our margins have exceeded guidance due to significant cost improvement and higher levels of wafer movements. Second quarter gross margin was 45.6%, operating margin was 34.5%, and net margin was 32.6%.

Despite posting good results for Q2, TSMC are expecting declining macro-economic factors to impact on their performance over the next quarter. CFO Lauro Ho said:

Even with a weakening macroeconomic environment, our second quarter results were either in line with or slightly higher than guidance announced at the end of April, thanks to our continual effort in driving cost reduction and increasing utilization rates," said Lora Ho, VP and Chief Financial Officer of TSMC. "Based on our current business outlook, management expects third quarter revenue growth to be below seasonality.

Reuters notes TSMC sees only sees a growth of 4% in the semiconductor industry. According to Reuters:

Top contract chip maker TSMC (2330.TW: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Thursday it expects the global semiconductor market to grow 4 percent in 2008, compared with a previous forecast of 4 percent to 6 percent.

According to PC World any slowdown in the foundry industry will have a widespread economic impact:

The warning from TSMC raises concerns about the global IT industry. The company is considered an bellwether for the global technology industry because it produces chips for such a wide range of products, including digital cameras, music players, mobile phones and PCs. Since chips are the building blocks of all electronics products, a slowdown in the sector will reverberate across the entire industry.

As a result of the slowdown, many fabs are cutting down on their CAPEX. Electronics Weekly notes even though TSMC is expanding, this expansion may not be enough to meet global demand and therefore expects potential supply issues in 2009. According to Electronics Weekly:

TSMC is still adding capacity, despite widespread industry concerns that the foundry industry is cutting back on capex in order to squeeze higher prices per wafer.

According to TSMC's Q208 report, the company currently has the capacity to run 2.3m 8 inch equivalent wafers which is 6 per cent more than it had in Q1.

TSMC's intention is to raise the Q2 figure by 5 per cent in Q3 to reach capacity of 2.4m 8 inch equivalent wafers

Total capacity for 2008 is expected to reach 9.4m 8 inch equivalent wafers, which is 13 per cent up on the 8.3m wafers processed in 2007.

12 inch wafer capacity in 2008 will increase by 27 per cent in 2008 over 2007, says TSMC.

Despite this, according to Europe's leading semiconductor analysts, Future Horizons, capacity won't meet demand next year.

"It's the first time the semiconductor industry has cut back on capital investment at a time when capacity is at its tightest", says Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons, "they're saying: 'I've got too little capacity so I'm stopping investing'. While utilisation rates are high, the capex rate is low."

However, to remain competitive and to allow companies to transition easily from 45 nm processing technologies to 32 nm processing technologies, TSMC has rolled out a new design platform. According to EE Times India:

Feeling the heat at the 32nm node, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd has put the pedal to the metal and rolled out a new design-for-manufacturing (DFM) scheme. TSMC's Unified DFM (UDFM) architecture is touted as giving chipmakers unprecedented access—at no charge—to its proprietary simulator, DFM models and other production information for 32nm. The goal of is to give them a head start with TSMC's 32nm process, which is expected to move into production by the end of 2009.

Other leading-edge foundries—including IBM Corp.'s "fab club" (AMD, Chartered, Freescale, IBM, Infineon, Samsung, STMicroelectronics and Toshiba) and United Microelectronics Corp.—are taking similar steps on the design automation and DFM fronts, hoping to make the 32nm transition somewhat less painful and costly.

As I said, a lot of news about TSMC out there today. I think that covers most of it!

Reuters: TSMC sees global semicon market growing 4 pct in '08
PRN News Wire: TSMC Reports Second Quarter EPS of NT$1.12
PC World: TSMC Q2 Results Shine, but Says Business Is Slowing
Electronics Weekly: TSMC Adds Capacity but is it Enough
EE Times India:
TSMC rolls out new DFM scheme

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